The “national inclusive dialogue” to tackle Ethiopia’s age-old structural problems

 The most worrying aspect of the situation is that the cornerstone of Ethiopian politics remains unchanged: Any power center aims to become hegemonic, and then to increasingly assert its hegemony. In both cases, the use of raw force is still the highway to reach these goals. Armed conflict is therefore unavoidable.

What is happening now could be the premise of the nth remake of a common Ethiopian historical episode: after the death of a ‘Big Man,’ different armed contenders fight until one clear winner emerges. Before, this confrontation was a raw power struggle. Today, the confrontation is also a path the contenders embark upon to ultimately decide between opposing political visions.

The most revealing display of this continuity has been the conflict between the Tigray and federal governments. By putting preconditions for dialogue that the other side obviously would not accept, they essentially chose war, and indeed prepared for it.

Now, Abiy offers little other than his intention to crush the “criminal clique.” The TPLF requests that Tigray’s government is restored and say they will fight until “the invaders will surrender”, which implies the departure of ENDF along with Eritrean and Amhara forces— in other words, Abiy’s capitulation.

For years, the call for a “national inclusive dialogue” to tackle Ethiopia’s age-old structural problems has been presented as the panacea to overcoming the crisis. This was unrealistic, illegitimate, and damaging.

Unrealistic, because if this dialogue was possible, it would have been put in place during the euphoric 2018 spring. The visions at stake are too antagonistic to reach a middle way. In any case, this would need compromises. But who would make the unavoidable concessions when each participant could claim its vision is predominant without any objective measurement?

Illegitimate, because this “dialogue” would be essentially in the hands of the political leaderships and frontrunners of the civil society. But the fate of the country cannot be fixed by a small circle through a “grand elite bargain.”

Damaging, because there is a significant opportunity cost to the international community misallocating its energies by pursuing this unrealistic objective.

In line with Ethiopian history, a victory of one of the armed camps could temporarily stabilize Ethiopia under an authoritarian regime, but any sustainable and in-depth solution requires negotiations. National negotiations should start very modestly with how to proceed, a “process-focused dialogue”. Step-by-step, the ultimate goal of the first main phase should be to organize credible elections, which is not the case with the upcoming polls.

Ethiopia is at Risk of Becoming a Failed State.

 The continued rise in ethnic-based violence and killing outside the combat zones could become a major factor leading towards societal collapse as life becomes unsafe for many.

Here are some of the troubling indicators pointing to its current fragile condition:

-The normalization of death and violence

-The failure of the rule of law and the lack of transparency and accountability

-Vigilante groups killing and robbing at will

-An alarming lack of compassion for victims by some, especially those of different ethnicity or when the victims are seen to be “part of an enemy group”

-A growing humanitarian crisis involving hunger, mass displacement, lack of shelter and health services

-A growing spirit of vengeance and the recycling of violence

Increasing fear and confusion as the reality on the ground is denied, blamed on others or otherwise avoided, leaving a silence that screams for the truth

-The rejection of the TPLF-advanced narrative, especially to the western governments and medias, which overlooks the TPLF’s own long record of injustice, political imprisonments, torture, and perpetration of widespread human rights atrocities, including crimes against humanity and genocide that they have committed during the years they were in power

-The West’s wide acceptance of the TPLF’s narrative, including overlooking their past history of human rights crimes and injustice, and treating both the current federal government and the TPLF as nearly equally legitimate contenders for power

Ethnic-based land disputes

-The contentious political environment as the country prepares for the upcoming national elections in June, especially due to concerns that some regions will not allow all parties to participate in the election, only allowing their own ethnic-based party access to their areas

-Signs of a buildup of fear and ethnic-based anger over the increasing numbers of incidents of ethnic-based violence and killing, which could lead to increased ethnic conflicts, civil war, instability and a failed state

Failure to find a meaningful solution and lasting peace is not an option. The people of this country must stand up and work to find a way to save lives and to uphold the value of every life as each person is valued by our Creator. We can establish consensus on many of these points; that is, unless we want to continue to live in an impoverished, systemic tribalism, dangerous and collapsed society.

Ethiopia is in trouble. Can we find the consensus we need to work together for a lasting solution.

Despite release orders, OLF Personal Relation head, his driver remain in police custody; Party says it notified Electoral Board, Rights Commission

 Despite release orders, OLF Personal Relation head, his driver remain in police custody; Party says it notified Electoral Board, Rights Commission

The head of the public relations bureau of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), Batte Urgessa and his driver Wondosen Abdulkadir remain under police custody after the court released them on bail. They appeared in Burayu district court six days after their arrest on March 20, 2021. Batte and Wondosen were arrested on March 20, 2021 while visiting fellow party members detained at a police detention center in Burayu.

At the court hearing on March 25, 2021, the police accused them of attempting to forcefully release their jailed party members and having relations with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). The police requested additional nine days to remand and investigate them, according to OLF’s interim Public relations head, Lammi Gemechu.

Batte and Wondosen made their second appearance in court on April 1, 2021. The police told the court that it has concluded the investigation related to the accusations of creating riot at the premises of the detention center. Their lawyer Tokuma Dhaba told Addis Standard, “The police asked the court to be given additional days to investigate an alleged connection the two accused have with unspecified ‘enemies’.” The defense team demanded transparency and disclosure of the name of said enemy and argued for the release of their clients while the police proceeded with the investigation.

The court granted 5,000 ETB bail for each defendant and ordered their release. “We paid the requested bail money but we were told that the investigator was not around.” Tokuma said, explaining how their clients remain under custody after the court ordered their release. Their families who went to the police station the morning of April 2, 2021 were told that they can not be released. According to Tokuma, the families were told that the Batte and Wondosen are facing other charges so they will remain under custody.