Six Major National and Regional Unintended Policy Implications of the Invasion of the Eastern and Southern Oromia by the Somali Liyu Police,

1. The inevitability of the Balkanization of Ethiopia:

The TPLF/EPRDF government’s creation of well trained and well-armed Somali Militia, similar to the Kurdistan militia in Iraq and Syria with a real possibility to secede the Somali speaking part of Ethiopia, and other local militias for smaller ethnic minorities groups like Afar and Benishangul in order to weaken the Oromo and possibly the Amhara for internal power struggle purposes will have the unintended purpose of making the balkanization of Ethiopia inevitable with major security implication for Ethiopia as a country and the Horn of Africa as a region.

2. The Death of Ethiopian nationalism and Patriotism:

For whatever it worth, Ethiopian nationalism and patriotism were built and nurtured through the effort of many generations of Ethiopians for over one hundred years, at the minimum. It is what kept Ethiopia as an independent and proud country when other African countries fall victim to colonialism and foreign domination. But, over the last 25 years, this commonwealth of all Ethiopians that helped to hold this country together was purposely made the center of the attack of a misguided identity politics. Now, Ethiopia is like a divided house that cannot stand. The large scale invasion of Eastern and Southern Oromia by the Somali Liyu Police and the politically calculated passivity by other Ethiopians mainly in Addis Ababa and the Amhara region is probably the last death kiss to Ethiopian patriotism and nationalism by telling the Oromo people that ‘you are in this invasion and aggression alone and by yourself.’ The message is unmistaken. The Oromo people, purposefully disarmed and disempowered, are being told that there is no collective self-defense that the Oromo people will expect from other Ethiopians except to fend for itself. This certainly will lead the Oromo people, particularly the Oromo youth, not to participate in any national collective self-defense effort under the Ethiopian umbrella if any part of the country is invaded by any regional or other powers outside the region.

3. Legitimizing Inter Ethnic Civil War In Ethiopia:

Throughout their long history, none of Ethiopia’s nations and nationalities declared war upon each other as ethnic groups. The peoples of this diverse region largely coexisted peacefully. There is no recorded history of inter-ethnic groups’ war of any significance. All the wars that happened are largely limited to regimes and the power struggle among various groups. But, the creation of the Somali Liyu police and its invasion of Eastern and Southern Oromia is likely to change the equation. Every ethnic group in Ethiopia will closely observe how the federal government aided and abated the Somali Liyu Police to attack the unarmed Oromo civilians. This practice will lead to an arms race among various ethnic groups to arm itself and to establish its own popular self-defense forces against any potential attacks and humiliations similar to the attack and invasion the Somali Militias are conducting daily in Oromia. Thus, the Somali Liyu Police invasion will ready and legitimize inter-ethnic civil war in Ethiopia, phenomena that never existed in Ethiopia in the past.

4. The Possibility of Creating A Fragmented, Weak and Fractured Ethiopian National Defense Force:

The Oromo protests and the Amhara resistance over the last two years have weakened the political and economic pillars of the Ethiopian government substantially. Now, the Somali Liyu Police invasion of Eastern and Southern Oromia aided and abated by the Ethiopian defense force will weaken the third and the only remaining strong pillar of the Ethiopian government:- the military and the national security. The abuse of power and discretion by the Ethiopian Defense Force by aiding and abating the Somali Liyu Police is highly likely to send very strong message to Oromo members of the military and the national security as well as the Oromo people not to trust and depend on the Ethiopian National Defense Force for its own safety and security. This deadly message will lead to the breakup of the Ethiopian Defense force along ethnic lines or regiments that will not trust and coordinate with each other. Furthermore, no young Oromo who observes the present actions of those now leading the Ethiopian National Defense Force will ever trust and be loyal to the command structure of the Ethiopian Defense Force since it will be perceived as not having the best interests, namely the peace and security, of the Oromo people at heart.

5. International Businesses and Foreign Direct Investment Funds that Flirted with the idea of doing Business in Ethiopia over the last few years will desert Ethiopia.

The Somali Liyu Police invasion of Eastern and Southern Oromia, and the failure of the Ethiopian Federal government to do anything to defend the unarmed Oromo civilians from these sustained attacks and aggression will send strong signal to the international businesses, and development and security partners of Ethiopia that Ethiopia is unstable, ripe for sudden ethnic conflicts and civil war which will make it very high-risk country to do business in.

6. Horn of Africa wide Conflict is likely to flare up as similar Somali Militias will soon be created in Kenya and Djibouti.

Why are the Oromo People Protesting again?

The Oromo people are protesting(#OromoProtests) again:

1) To defend and protect their children and their leaders from the attack, arrest, and killings by the Ethiopian government security forces,

2) To protect their land from Addis Ababa based and foreign land grabbers and land thieves, and take back their land from these land grabbers,

3) To force the Ethiopian government to make Afaan Oromo the working language of the federal government to end the political, economic and social exclusion of the Oromo people in Ethiopia,

4) To force the Ethiopian government restore the status of unlawfully separated and stolen Oromia cities including Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Harar and Moyale under the Oromia National Regional Administration,

5) To force the Ethiopian government to accept the self-administration rights of the Oromo people by ending the current indirect rule of TPLF/EPRDF in Oromia,

6) To force the Ethiopian government to accept the legitimate rights of the Oromo people to have their fair power and resources share in the federal government, and

7) Last but not least, the Oromo people are protesting to force the Ethiopian government to immediately and unconditionally release all political prisoners including Dr. Merera Gudina, Mr. Bekele Gerba and Mr. Yonatan Tesfaye.

Over the last two years of the #OromoProtests, Ethiopian government did nothing to address any of the demands of the Oromo people. This is a very serious mistake on the part of the regime that prefers to despise and belittle the civilized power of the Oromo people.

Ethiopia will descend into chaos and instability if the Ethiopian government continue giving blind eyes and deaf ears to the demands of the people.

All Ethiopia’s development and security partners who observe the civilized and non-violent demands of the Oromo people must advise and pressure this unresponsive government to address each and every demand of the Oromo people.

Profile of the Invading Somali Liyu Police that Invaded Five Oromia Zones and 14 Oromia Districts

1. Established in April 2007 as counter insurgency military group, the Somali Liyu police are estimated to have more than 40,000 well-armed and well-funded troops.

2. Who is providing the funding and training: Initially, it was funded and trained by the government of the United Kingdom. Now, the group is believed to have a wider network in the Middle East, in addition to the support it regularly receives from the TPLF/EPRDF government of Ethiopia.

3. Objectives and purpose of the group: The key objectives of the group is territorial expansion into the Oromia region with the purpose of fulfilling the Greater Somalia Dream of Conquering Eastern and Southern Regions of Ethiopia. Presently, according to Oromia Regional Government Spokesperson's interview with VOA, the group is conducting large scale war against unarmed Oromo civilians in Five Zones and 14 Districts of Oromia Region.

4. Oromia Zones and Districts under Invasion: Presently, the Somali Region Army, the only Ethiopian region to have its own standing Army, is attacking in five Oromia Zones and 14 Districts. Some of the Somali invaded Oromia districts are:

i. Qumbi, Cinaksan, Midhaga Tola, Gursum, Mayu Muluqe and Babile in East Hararghe Zone;

ii. Bordode in West Hararghe Zone;

iii. Dawe Sarar, Sawena, Mada Walabu and Rayitu in Bale Zone;

iv. Gumi Eldelo and Liban in Guji Zone; and

v. Moyale in Borana

5. The position of the Oromia Regional State: It seems the Regional government is caught off guard and empty handed. After losing hundreds of counties to the rapidly advancing invading Somali forces, the newly constituted administration of the President Lemma Megersa is yet to train and arm the Oromo people to defend themselves or solicit support from the largely unwilling federal government.

6. The position of the Ethiopian Government: There is a big hole here. Individually all Oromia Regional government officials believe that the TPLF/EPRDF government is fully behind the group including openly supporting and arming it with the objective of weakening the Oromo for internal political purposes. Official statements are not yet to be issued by either party.

7. Suggested Future Course of Action: The Oromia Regional government must mobilize, train and arm the Oromo people to defend themselves against this barbarous invading force. Demobilized former Ethiopian government military forces should also be called upon both to train and led the people's

The Three Core National Interests that need immediate attention!

As soon as the Oromo people collectively start to protect and defend:

1) their children and leaders from arrest, torture, and killings;

2) their land and natural resources from land and natural resources grabbers; and

3) their language and social values by making Afaan Oromo the federal working language by following the strict principle of territoriality in language use:

all forms of repression in Ethiopia will permanently end, and Ethiopia will transition into an era of politics of mutual respect. (Oromo resources and Oromo weaknesses are the two major curse and battleground in that country.)

And best of all, the #OromoProtests have turned the Oromo people into a formidable organization with no political, religious or regional differences to immediately agree on these three core national interests, and defend them.

The only major and lasting legacy of the #OromoProtests, the making of the Oromo people into a single political community that knows its national interests and ready to defend them, must be kept, protected and nurtured by every single Oromo as our people advance and move forward.

The other two key issues that remain are:

1) whether this single most important legacy of the #OromoProtests, i.e, the making of the Oromo people into a single political community with no religious, political, and/or regional differences, and

2) whether the three core national interests of the Oromo people, i.e., protecting and defending their leaders and children, land, and language

are properly spotted and their importance properly understood by Oromo groups and activists who claim to represent the interests of the Oromo but became largely a liability and a burden to the Oromo people?

I hope every single Oromo will stand and measure his/her actions or inactions based on his or her contributions to these three core national interests.