1. The inevitability of the Balkanization of Ethiopia:
The TPLF/EPRDF government’s creation of well trained and well-armed Somali Militia, similar to the Kurdistan militia in Iraq and Syria with a real possibility to secede the Somali speaking part of Ethiopia, and other local militias for smaller ethnic minorities groups like Afar and Benishangul in order to weaken the Oromo and possibly the Amhara for internal power struggle purposes will have the unintended purpose of making the balkanization of Ethiopia inevitable with major security implication for Ethiopia as a country and the Horn of Africa as a region.
2. The Death of Ethiopian nationalism and Patriotism:
For whatever it worth, Ethiopian nationalism and patriotism were built and nurtured through the effort of many generations of Ethiopians for over one hundred years, at the minimum. It is what kept Ethiopia as an independent and proud country when other African countries fall victim to colonialism and foreign domination. But, over the last 25 years, this commonwealth of all Ethiopians that helped to hold this country together was purposely made the center of the attack of a misguided identity politics. Now, Ethiopia is like a divided house that cannot stand. The large scale invasion of Eastern and Southern Oromia by the Somali Liyu Police and the politically calculated passivity by other Ethiopians mainly in Addis Ababa and the Amhara region is probably the last death kiss to Ethiopian patriotism and nationalism by telling the Oromo people that ‘you are in this invasion and aggression alone and by yourself.’ The message is unmistaken. The Oromo people, purposefully disarmed and disempowered, are being told that there is no collective self-defense that the Oromo people will expect from other Ethiopians except to fend for itself. This certainly will lead the Oromo people, particularly the Oromo youth, not to participate in any national collective self-defense effort under the Ethiopian umbrella if any part of the country is invaded by any regional or other powers outside the region.
3. Legitimizing Inter Ethnic Civil War In Ethiopia:
Throughout their long history, none of Ethiopia’s nations and nationalities declared war upon each other as ethnic groups. The peoples of this diverse region largely coexisted peacefully. There is no recorded history of inter-ethnic groups’ war of any significance. All the wars that happened are largely limited to regimes and the power struggle among various groups. But, the creation of the Somali Liyu police and its invasion of Eastern and Southern Oromia is likely to change the equation. Every ethnic group in Ethiopia will closely observe how the federal government aided and abated the Somali Liyu Police to attack the unarmed Oromo civilians. This practice will lead to an arms race among various ethnic groups to arm itself and to establish its own popular self-defense forces against any potential attacks and humiliations similar to the attack and invasion the Somali Militias are conducting daily in Oromia. Thus, the Somali Liyu Police invasion will ready and legitimize inter-ethnic civil war in Ethiopia, phenomena that never existed in Ethiopia in the past.
4. The Possibility of Creating A Fragmented, Weak and Fractured Ethiopian National Defense Force:
The Oromo protests and the Amhara resistance over the last two years have weakened the political and economic pillars of the Ethiopian government substantially. Now, the Somali Liyu Police invasion of Eastern and Southern Oromia aided and abated by the Ethiopian defense force will weaken the third and the only remaining strong pillar of the Ethiopian government:- the military and the national security. The abuse of power and discretion by the Ethiopian Defense Force by aiding and abating the Somali Liyu Police is highly likely to send very strong message to Oromo members of the military and the national security as well as the Oromo people not to trust and depend on the Ethiopian National Defense Force for its own safety and security. This deadly message will lead to the breakup of the Ethiopian Defense force along ethnic lines or regiments that will not trust and coordinate with each other. Furthermore, no young Oromo who observes the present actions of those now leading the Ethiopian National Defense Force will ever trust and be loyal to the command structure of the Ethiopian Defense Force since it will be perceived as not having the best interests, namely the peace and security, of the Oromo people at heart.
5. International Businesses and Foreign Direct Investment Funds that Flirted with the idea of doing Business in Ethiopia over the last few years will desert Ethiopia.
The Somali Liyu Police invasion of Eastern and Southern Oromia, and the failure of the Ethiopian Federal government to do anything to defend the unarmed Oromo civilians from these sustained attacks and aggression will send strong signal to the international businesses, and development and security partners of Ethiopia that Ethiopia is unstable, ripe for sudden ethnic conflicts and civil war which will make it very high-risk country to do business in.
6. Horn of Africa wide Conflict is likely to flare up as similar Somali Militias will soon be created in Kenya and Djibouti.
With the creation of the Somali Liyu Police, the Somalis will become the Kurdistan of the Horn of Africa. Just like the Kurds in Turkey, Iraq and Syria imitated each other’s actions and created their own local militias, the Somalis in Kenya and Djibouti will soon create their own local militia in the mold of the Somali Liyu Police with the objective of seceding the Somali speaking parts of Kenya and Djibouti and creating conducive environment for the creation of greater Somalia. That certainly will trigger Horn of Africa wide regional instability that will engulf all countries of the region. And the Regional countries and the now passive security partners of Ethiopia will have no one to blame except themselves and the regime they now support with earnest.
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