Ethiopia is a country of many contradictions and contestations.

Justice/Freedom/Democracy

Ethiopia is a country of many contradictions and contestations. Currently, Ethiopia is facing multidimensional and intersectional crises of geo-political, security, and socio-economic characteristics. Gross violations of human rights are perpetrated by government forces and persistent demands for accountability have fallen on deaf ears. Impunity is so rampant that it has become the rule of the Ethiopian state. These crises are rooted in the political history of the country and are reflections of contradictory visions for the future of the country. The country is facing a heightened contradiction on state structure. The prospect of the country’s continuity hinges on whether and how this contradiction gets settled. The question is whether they will be settled in a way that rectifies historical injustices and usher in the prospect of peaceful co-existence, or will they culminate in disintegration of the country? The alliance of forces and the continued struggle for justice, freedom, and democracy is informed by the critical situation of the country. The situation calls for unprecedented determination to end these crises devastating the country and greatly endangering the stability of the Horn of Africa. In this paper, we attempt to address the current situation in Ethiopia, with a focus on the prevailing contradictions on state structure and associated crises. We will take a brief retrospective look into the past and reimagine the prospect of the Oromo struggle in the context that is unfolding. 

The deep-seated contradiction on Ethiopia’s state formation and state structure inform and underlay the current political divide between political parties.  The incumbent Prosperity Party and some other unitarist political parties that are in control of the economy, bureaucracy, and military power are exploiting their leverage that went to an extent of pushing out widely accepted federalist political parties such as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC). This is evident from the data on electoral candidates recently published by the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) in which – 2432 are from the Prosperity Party, 1385 candidates from Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (also known as EZEMA) and 491 candidates from NAMA and the less known Enat Party prepares 573 candidates while Oromia – the populous and largest region – appears to be represented by one barely known opposition political party Oromo Liberation Movement, which is represented only by 4 candidates.

This squarely points to the problem of election without representation, which has a considerable potential of resulting in pre-and post-election crises. Furthermore, as its multiple procedural and substantive practices suggest, the institutional integrity and independence of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) itself is questionable. 

While a detailed and comprehensive way forward must be set based on the consensus of all stakeholders, issues for the dialogue should include the nature of the state structure going forward and a collective agreement on how to seek solutions for the crises engulfing the country. The international community should put pressure on all parties, especially the government, as a matter of urgency. There are many preconditions to be undertaken for a meaningful dialogue. These include:

• The release of all political prisoners
• The cessation of hostilities and war in various parts of the country
• Revoking the recent designation of political parties and groups as terrorist organizations 
• Reopening of the political and media spaces
• Unconditional withdrawal of Eritrean army from Oromia regions and
• Removal of military and intelligence surveillance from civilian life.