From nonviolent social movements to armed conflicts: How Abiy Ahmed ’s rule pushed youths from the city to the bush in Oromia

 The peace talks that began on 07 November, 2023 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the federal government of Ethiopia formally ended on 21 November, 2023 without any deal for the second time. It has been five years since the military confrontations broke out between the two forces. In this piece, I will shed light on how a promising nonviolent social movement in the history of Ethiopia which began in Oromia and unexpectedly transformed into armed conflicts.

In recent history, spontaneous youth protests in Oromia have been seen as normal extracurricular responsibilities of high school and college students since 1992. However, the movement changed its organizational networks and tactics following the announcement of the infamous Addis Ababa integrated master plan in 2014 which was first opposed by Oromia regional officials and then followed by large scale nonviolent movements across Oromia. The demands of the new wave of movements in the region rose from a narrow protest against the capital city master plan to demanding a complete state transformation by 2016.

Abiy subsequently chose to crackdown against Oromo youths and opponents of his new party both within and outside the government. These all counter-revolutionary measures intensified in Oromia following the assassination in 2020 of Hachalu Hundessa, an icon and leading new generation resistance singer. The new administration of Abiy closed all political spaces that tolerated nonviolent struggles by arresting Oromo opposition figures, organizing election in August 2021, running unopposed and declaring itself the sole winner in Oromia restoring a complete single party rule in the region.  As a result, the Oromo youths were left with no option and they were forced to consider as the last resort, armed insurgency.

Down the road, if there is any vision to restore peace in Ethiopia, layers of negotiations in different regions with different conflicting parties, I believe, are imperative. Peace could only come to Ethiopia if it is restored in each region first. For sure, the traditional way of governing Ethiopia through a centralized administration of one-man rule from the capital city is unthinkable.