Regional states fear Ethiopia’s dissolution—it would be a nightmare scenario of dislocation and instability

 

Critics of Ethiopian federalism have valid arguments about problems inherent in the system but the remedy for this is revision of the constitution through the legislative process, not the whims of one man acting through brute force.

Nor has Abiy done himself any favors with fellow African leaders. There is a way presidents and prime ministers speak to the public, and there is a way in which they talk among themselves. Abiy fails at the latter. He lacks candor and appears untethered from the reality that he has created. Many of his counterparts describe him as a naïf with a messiah complex. While African leaders will not publicly abandon one of their own, the shedding of African Union offices from Ethiopia to other capitals reflects Abiy’s declining diplomatic capital.

Regional states fear Ethiopia’s dissolution—it would be a nightmare scenario of dislocation and instability—but many diplomats, including those traditionally friendly to Ethiopia, quietly question whether it is already too late. Abiy’s supporters may have justified his action in antipathy to federalism but by choosing unilateralism over negotiation, Abiy may have cemented his legacy not as a Nobel Peace Laureate, but rather as the man who ended a country whose history dates back millennia. It is time for the United States, United Nations, and Ethiopia’s neighbors to plan for its end as a unified entity.